With the November midterms just three weeks away, Republicans are increasing their advantage over Democrats in so-called generic voting. Such voting removes individual candidates from consideration by asking likely voters, “Would you rather have a Republican representing you in Congress than a Democrat, or vice versa?”
In late September, Democrats were leading Republicans slightly — between one and three percentage points. Since then, it’s been all Republicans, with a “generic” Republican steadily gaining over his “generic” Democrat rival, and now showing a five- to seven-percentage-point advantage.
Not only is the momentum important going into the last days before the midterms, but pollsters note that any time Republicans hold at least a three-percentage-point advantage going into the election, Republicans gain many seats while Democrats lose them. GOP pollster Ed Goeas put it this way: “If the generic ballot is within 5 points [for Republicans] usually that means we pick up some seats.”
Likely voters are going to be voting their pocketbooks. Sixty-five percent of them believe the economy is getting worse, while 63 percent of them are saying that prices for gas and groceries are going up. Nearly half of voters told CBS News-YouGov pollsters last week that Democrat policies have harmed the economy.
Democrat efforts to deflect away from those realities by emphasizing the slight temporary reduction in gas prices at the pump as a result of releasing 180 million barrels of oil from the country’s strategic oil reserves isn’t working. Prices are going up again, and once again Democrats are considering releasing another 100 million barrels just before the midterms, hoping to gain some political advantage from the move.
Voters who drive aren’t buying the canard. Those reserves are for emergencies, not for electing Democrats. As author and radio show host Kevin McCullough notes: “The trickery of taking our emergency reserves and getting gas prices down .08-.30 cents [per gallon] hasn’t fooled anybody.”
He added:
Every week moms and dads are shelling out $100s more in gas than they did before [Biden] was elected. Every trip to the grocery store magnifies this as well.
These injuries fester more deeply in working and middle-class families. These families will vote in a big way.
Ignorance, malfeasance, and incompetence [by the Biden administration] are very much on the ballot, and people will vote against them.
While the spread between generic Republican and Democratic candidates continues to widen — it’s now seven percentage points whereas just a week ago it was three points — the real turning against Democrats is occurring among Independents. On September 29, according to Rasmussen, Democrats held a one-point advantage in that cohort over Republicans: 38-37.
A week later, that Democrat advantage vanished, with Republicans leading Democrats, 41-34.
Last week, Republicans extended their lead among independents in generic voting, 46-30.
That’s a 17-point shift towards the GOP in just the last three weeks.
There are other issues, of course: brainwashing youngsters, the Mar-a-Lago raid, the faux January 6 investigation, the Biden-instigated threat of nuclear war in Europe, the immigration flood, and so on.
But issues such as abortion rights, which the Democrats have been hoping would galvanize voters who don’t object to murdering babies in the mother’s womb, aren’t gaining traction. Recent surveys show abortion as “the most important issue” at just eight percent, while concern over the economy is at 30 percent.
If, as pollsters are suggesting, the midterms give Republicans a 230-205 advantage in the 118th Congress, the real issue is just how serious that new Congress will be in beginning to rebuild the Republic. The present 117th Congress sports a dismal 67-percent rating out of 100 among Republicans in the The New American’s “Freedom Index“, a measure of how closely representatives and senators hew to their oaths to uphold and defend the Constitution.
That number must improve substantially in order for the restoration to begin in earnest.
