While former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin has been very careful not to reveal her intentions for a presidential bid in 2012, during an ABC News interview with Barbara Walters, she did not hesitate to say that she believed she could defeat President Barack Obama in 2012 if she chose to run against him.
While the complete interview between Barbara Walters and Sarah Palin will not air on ABC until December 9, the excerpt pertaining to Palin’s potential presidential bid has been released.
During the segment, Barbara Walters asked Palin if she has considered running for President in 2012. Palin responded, “I’m looking at the lay of the land now and trying to figure that out — if it’s a good thing for the country, for the discourse, for my family.”
Walters then asked, “If you ran for President, could you beat Barack Obama?”
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Palin replied, “I believe so.”
But a Palin victory is anything but assured. The Blaze reports, “An Associated Press-Gfk poll earlier this month found Palin the most polarizing of the potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates. The poll says 46 percent of Americans view her favorably, 49 percent unfavorably, and 5 percent don’t know enough about her to form an opinion.”
However, the results are significantly better when asking self-identified Republicans. Among those, 70 percent view Sarah Palin favorably.
Unfortunately for Palin, a CNN Poll pitting Palin against Obama shows Palin “comes in third in a hypothetical horserace for the next GOP presidential nomination.”
The CNN/Opinion Research Poll shows that President Barack Obama would beat the former Alaskan Governor by double digits.
CNN’s Political Ticker reports: “The survey found that 24 percent of Republicans and Republican leaning Independents say they would most likely support Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and 2008 GOP presidential candidate, in the battle for the 2012 GOP nomination. And 20 percent said they would back former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who also ran for the White House in 2008. Palin, who was Sen. John McCain’s running mate in the last presidential election, came in third place with 15 percent, a point ahead of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich."
According to the poll, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, another 2008 Republican presidential hopeful, would be in fifth place, with eight percent. Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana, and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour all register in the lower single digits in the hypothetical 2012 GOP presidential nomination matchup.
Most notable, however, is how these preferred GOP candidates match up against President Obama. In a showdown between Obama and Romney, the President maintains an edge, 53 to 45 percent. Similarly, Obama tops Huckabee 54 to 45 percent, Gingrich 55 to 43 percent and Palin 55 to 42 percent.
Given that none of these potential GOP candidates has had an opportunity to campaign for the 2012 presidential election, the figures do not appear to be insurmountable in any case.
CNN Polling director Keating Holland articulates similar sentiments. “It is important to remember that at this stage of the game, candidate matchups are largely driven by name recognition, and at least a quarter of all Americans are unfamiliar with Romney, Huckabee and Gingrich. As a result, Obama has an 8-to-12 point edge over each of them in hypothetical matchups. But in a previous CNN poll, Obama managed no better than a tie against an unnamed Republican.”
However, Holland notes that name recognition is not what gives President Obama such a strong lead over Palin: “Palin is almost as well known as Obama, but the general public appears to have some doubts about what they have seen of her so far.”
According to the poll, 61 percent view Palin as an atypical politician (though one would assume that would bode well for her), and only half see her as trustworthy and honest. What’s worse for Palin is that 54 percent say they do not stand with Palin on most issues, 56 percent say she does not appear to be a strong or decisive leader, and a whopping 69 percent do not believe her to be presidential material.
One potential Republican candidate not addressed in the CNN poll is billionaire entrepreneur Donald Trump, who told George Stephanopolous in an interview on Good Morning America that he was seriously considering a presidential bid in 2012. “I am thinking about things. I love what I’m doing, but it could be fun because I’d like to see some positive things happen for the country. We cannot let the rest of the world beat us. We’re like a whipping post right now.”
When asked if he would be comfortable potentially running against Sarah Palin, Trump replied, “If I ran I would have no choice. I’d take her on. I like her, but I’d take her on.”
At the same time, Trump accredited Palin as having presidential potential. “She’s very interesting. Don’t underestimate her.”
Previously dubbed the “kingmaker” by TPM Media based on her successful endorsements in the GOP primaries, less than half of Palin’s endorsements won in the general election, calling into question her political influence.
Likewise, Lisa Murkowski’s victory in Alaska may be the greatest blow to Palin as her endorsee, Joe Miller, lost to the write-in candidate. The Associated Press called Miller’s loss a “rebuke for Palin on her home turf by voters who know her best,” and “an embarrassment as Palin considers a White House bid.”
Even worse, Murkowski has indicated that she would not support Palin’s presidential bid, if she were to launch one. As a Senator of Palin’s home turf, that would not bode well for Palin’s campaign.
Palin may potentially have other things working in her favor, however. For example, British publication The Independent views the launch of Sarah Palin’s reality miniseries as an opportunity for Palin to put a presidential bid back on the agenda.
TLC, the network on which Sarah Palin’s Alaska is found, reports that Palin’s reality show had the greatest debut in TLC history, boasting five million viewers.
Political analyst Karl Rove, however, believes the reality show actually diminishes Palin’s “presidential gravitas.”
As 2010 winds down and Americans begin to look toward 2012, one thing seems certain: 2011 should prove to be exciting.
Photo of Sarah Palin: AP Images
