A former communications director for Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) says Republicans currently have the advantage going into the 2022 midterm elections, and Joe Biden could face a primary challenge if things don’t improve for him.
Corbin Trent, founder of No Excuses PAC, said Friday: “We’re seeing that the polls show the Republicans have a slight edge. That may be getting worse.”
Noting that Biden is “pushing 80,” Trent said major midterm losses for Democrats would be bad news for the Democrat commander-in-chief.
“If we see a midterm outcome where Democrats lose the House and God forbid the Senate too, I think all bets are off and we’ll see the Democratic party go in maybe a different direction and truncate its losses,” he added.
Trent also believes that even if Biden does not see a primary challenger, there’s a viable possibility of a strong third-party candidate spoiling the race, similar to Ross Perot in the 1992 and 1996 presidential electrons.
“Right now the American people are divided in how they feel about the economy, divided about how we’re handling the COVID pandemic,” Trent said. “We have to do a better job uniting the country. For whatever reason, President Biden has not been able to do that to this point.”
Trent told Politico last week that Biden was “deeply unpopular” and “old as s**t.”
Trent said he actually believes the economy and general state of the country are better under Biden that they appear, and that the problem partly lies with the White House’s messaging.
“What we’re seeing right now is a Democratic Party that has done a lot for the American people and has largely been unable to articulate what it’s doing and what it’s done,” he told Fox News. “That is a real challenge.”
Trent isn’t the only Democrat insider who believes Biden could face a primary challenge in 2024.
“Will there be a progressive challenger? Yes,” said Jeff Weaver, Senator Bernie Sanders’ former presidential campaign manager.
It’s not clear who would be the one to run against Biden. Two of the biggest names in the 2020 primary field — Senators Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) — have enjoyed a significant amount of influence in the Biden White House and would be unlikely to risk losing that access for what would likely be a losing bid.
Someone such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (who would be 35 in 2024) might also have more to lose by risking her political career on a long-shot challenge.
“Yes, but someone like Nina Turner or Marianne Williamson. Doubt anyone currently elected,” said one prominent progressive when asked if someone from the Left would run against Biden.
While anyone who challenges Biden in the primary is likely to lose, it could still be an enticing opportunity for someone who wants to get his or her name out there. Senator Edward Kennedy famously boosted his credentials as the “Liberal Lion” when he ran an unsuccessful primary campaign against then-president Jimmy Carter in 1980.
And Ronald Reagan tried to primary President Gerald Ford, coming just 44 delegates short of securing the nomination. Reagan, of course, came back to win the nomination and the presidency in the next election.
The biggest consideration in having a serious primary challenger to Biden is that it might lead to him losing the general election. Both Carter and Ford lost their reelection bids after being challenged by Kennedy and Reagan, respectively.
The danger of a viable challenger spoiling general election chances are so frightening to political operatives that Barack Obama’s team was alarmed in 2012 when Sanders was reportedly considering running against the Democrat president that year.
The talk of a primary challenge principally stems from progressives’ disappointment with the results — or lack thereof — of Biden’s tenure. A slim Senate majority has made it difficult for Biden on the more ambitious policies he promised the Left. That includes a failure to deliver on a transformative overhaul of the nation’s voting system and on the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act.
Blacks within the Democrat Party are among the leftist voting blocks with whom Biden is currently on shaky ground.
Martin Luther King III, the eldest son of the famed civil-rights leader, showed dissatisfaction with the White House while discussing plans to lead a march on his father’s birthday this year:
“The president has said that ‘you had my back,’ essentially meaning the ‘Black and brown communities were reasons why I was elected, and I’m going to have your back.’ That means delivering on voting rights and some police reform issues that just did not happen, as well.”
