The new population counts from the Census Bureau on Monday marked the first step in congressional reapportionment — an official redistribution of representation in Congress — a contentious process that will unfold over the coming months. States will redraw their political maps using more detailed, local-level population data to be released later this year.
According to the published Census results, reapportionment of the 435 House seats means losses of districts in mostly Democratic-leaning states and gains in mostly Republican-leaning states. A total of seven seats are shifting: California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia will lose one seat each, while Colorado, Florida, Oregon, Montana, and North Carolina will gain one seat each, and Texas will gain two.
Election analysts generally think that the shifting of seven seats could result in a small net boost for Republicans with the creation of more Republican-friendly seats in red states. That could mean a two- or three-seat edge — a figure that could make a difference in the instance of a closely divided House, but not as much an advantage as some were expecting. Nonetheless, the GOP will have complete control of drawing the congressional maps in Texas, Florida, and North Carolina — states that are adding four seats.
In contrast, though Democrats control the process in Oregon, Democratic lawmakers there have agreed to give Republicans an equal say in redistricting in exchange for a commitment to stop blocking bills. In Democratic Colorado, a nonpartisan commission will draw the lines, meaning the party won’t have total control in a single expanding state’s redistricting. Overall, 25 states utilize an independent, bipartisan commission to draw their congressional districts, or have split chambers of legislatures. But in the other 25 states, there is single-party control of legislatures, which will determine how the maps will be drawn — 18 controlled by Republicans, and seven by Democrats (even states that saw no change will have to redraw district lines).
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Additionally, Republicans still enjoy a lingering advantage from the 2010 census cycle, according to Bloomberg. The Tea Party movement that year swept Republicans into the U.S. House but also helped the party win hundreds of down-ballot races in state legislatures that redrew congressional district lines that year.
In many states, those same legislators also draw their own district lines — a power Republicans used to further entrench themselves for the last decade.
Recent Democratic successes at the national level have not always translated down-ballot. Despite Joe Biden’s electoral victory in 2020 (which was marred by allegations of voter fraud), Democrats were unable to flip any state legislative chambers last year.
There is another factor that puts Democrats, who currently hold a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, at a disadvantage in the 2022 midterm elections. Historically, the president’s party loses seats during the midterm election in his first term. Modern midterm elections have resulted in an average loss of 30 seats in the House of Representatives and Senate by the political party whose president occupies the White House. In 2010, Republicans took control of the House from Democrats, picking up 60 seats, and Democrats regained their majority in 2018, with a net gain of 40 seats. Paired with Republican-favoring redistricting, the results of the upcoming midterms may be disastrous for the Democrat Party.
At the same time, there’s a hidden danger for Republicans if they overplay their hand in redrawing district lines, warns Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “If they go too far — if they get too aggressive, they might draw maps that are good for them in 2022 but start to erode for them in 2024 and beyond,” Kondik said.
Indeed, much of the growth in the Sun Belt is coming from populations moving from more liberal states such as California, Illinois, and New York who bring their liberal views and voices with them — those same views that resulted in devastating policies in their home states, and made the migrants look for a better place only to start it all over again. It is remarkable that over the years, seven of the eight places that people are most eager to flee rank solidly Democratic in party affiliation, and migration data reflect that.
Another trend that leftists experts view as a potentially damaging for Republicans is a booming Latino population that they presume leans left. But the resent elections show that that may not be the case, with Trump’s dramatic gains among Latino voters in Texas and Florida, including in Democratic strongholds in the border counties. At the same time, the recent astronomical spending on House and Senate races by Democrats indicate the Lone Star State is being eyed as a potential huge gain for them.
Overall, the redistribution of Congressional seats following the census is a lucky break for Republicans, and a bad one for Democrats. In the upcoming elections, it may be amplified by the Biden administration’s disastrous policies, making people overwhelmingly vote red.
