At first blush the latest political analysis from the Cook Political Report (CPR) shows a tight race for control of the House in the November midterms. The self-proclaimed “independent and nonpartisan” online pollster shows 215 of the 435 races to be decided on Tuesday, November 8 already in the bag: 110 implacably Democrat-held and 105 seats firmly held by a Republican.
Of the remaining 220 seats, Cook estimates that 29 of them are in their “likely/lean” category: considered to be competitive but with one party having an advantage. 18 of those seats favor retention by a Democrat while just 11 appear to give a Republican the advantage.
There are, according to Cook’s analysis, 20 other seats that it rates as “toss-up or worse”, meaning they are the “most competitive” with either party having a good chance of winning them. At the moment Cook says that Democrats have a 13-7 advantage over Republicans in this category.
But a closer look reveals a different conclusion. First of all, Cook was silent on the other 171 races to be decided in November. And, as John Rigolizzo wrote at The Daily Wire after reviewing the Cook report in detail:
The new ratings show that Republicans are ahead in enough competitive races, with enough toss-up districts, that they have a significant chance to flip the House in 2022.
Republicans are on pace to flip five House districts [while] Democrats, on the other hand, are likely to flip only one seat…
Republicans need to win a net gain of five seats in the House, and while the GOP only has comfortable leads in enough races to net them a pickup of four seats [in November], the CPR shows that Democrats are defending eight toss-up seats to Republicans’ six toss-ups.
If Republicans hold all their toss-up seats, they would need to flip just one of the toss-ups in Cook’s modeling to take the majority.
As Dave Wasserman, the U.S. House Editor for Cook, noted, “[We’re] still a long way to go, but Republicans [are] clear favorites for control.”
Although Cook touts itself as nonpartisan the group missed its predictions in 2020. Republicans won five seats in the “lean Democrat” column as well as two seats in the “likely Democrat” column. Republicans also won every seat in the “lean/likely” column and “likely Republican” column, along with every “toss-up” race. If Cook again misreads the electorate in 2022, the Republicans could win control by far more than the five seats presently needed.
That’s what Republican House Leader Kevin McCarthy is counting on. The day after Virginia voters surprisingly replaced an incumbent Democrat governor with a Republican nobody in November, he warned: “If you’re a Democrat and Biden won your seat by 16 points, you’re in a competitive race next year. You are no longer safe.”
McCarthy added:
It’ll be more than 70 races that will be competitive. There are many that are going to lose their races based upon [those Democrats] walking off a cliff [that] Nancy Pelosi is pushing them [over].
She may not care if she loses. She lost 63 the last time she was Speaker, moving policy that the country didn’t care for.
Cook was silent on the nearly two dozen Democrats who have conveniently decided to retire from the House as Pelosi’s “cliff” edges ever closer.
Cook just shifted three Senate races from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up”: Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. These are states where Biden allegedly won the presidency by the slimmest of margins and, noted Cook, “if there is a sizeable partisan swing [toward Republicans] come next November, it’s easy to see how these races get swept away” to Republican candidates. That would give control of the Senate to the Republicans as well.
The Cook report echoes what Doug Schoen predicted two weeks ago. Schoen, a Democrat pollster, said his party “is finding itself in an increasingly unelectable and unsustainable position,” adding:
Our firm’s survey among likely 2022 midterm election voters finds that the Democrats’ political prospects are significantly deteriorating. If the Democratic Party continues down its current ill-fated path of embracing progressive policies while overlooking manifest political realities, we will almost certainly see a landslide G.O.P. victory in 2022….
Without … a course correction, Democrats are almost certain to be brought down by Republicans in 2022 and 2024 and may find themselves the minority in Congress for years to come.
Related article:
Democrat Pollster Predicts Big Win in November — for Republicans
